With early voting set to begin in Massachusetts in less than three weeks, Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by a margin of 58 percent to 26 percent among likely voters in the latest survey from the Western New England University Polling Institute.
The statewide telephone survey of 403 likely voters, conducted September 24 through October 3, found that even with third party candidates accounting for 11 percent of the vote, Clinton holds a lead in Massachusetts comparable to her husband’s margin of victory here in 1996.
The survey, which has a margin of error of plus or minus five percentage points, showed seven percent of voters backing Libertarian Gary Johnson for president. Four percent of voters said they would support Jill Stein, who is running under the Green-Rainbow Party label in Massachusetts, while another four percent said they were undecided and one percent declined to state a preference. Both third-party candidates have connections to the Bay State. Johnson’s vice-presidential running mate is William Weld, former governor of Massachusetts. Stein lives in Massachusetts and has run for governor here in the past.
Among the larger sample of 467 registered voters, Clinton leads Trump by 29 points in the four-candidate matchup. In a hypothetical match-up between Clinton and Trump without the third-party candidates, Clinton holds a 35-point lead among likely voters, 65 percent to 30 percent. Among all registered voters, Clinton leads Trump by 31 points in a two-candidate race in the latest survey. In previous Polling Institute surveys in April of this year and October 2015, Clinton led Trump by 36 and 37 points respectively among all registered voters in a two-candidate race.
“Although the 2016 presidential campaign has had its share of twists and turns nationally, voter preferences in Massachusetts seem to have been pretty stable over the past year,” said Tim Vercellotti, director of the Polling Institute and a professor of political science at Western New England University.
Democratic presidential nominees have carried Massachusetts by margins of 23 to 26 percentage points in each cycle since 2000. Vercellotti noted that one would have to go back to 1996, when Bill Clinton won the state by 33 points, to find a lead similar to that which Hillary Clinton holds among likely voters in the latest survey.
Hillary Clinton’s sizable lead exists even as Massachusetts voters express clear divisions over her favorability. Forty-eight percent of likely voters hold a favorable view of her, while 44 percent hold an unfavorable view. Among all registered voters Clinton’s favorability rating is under water, with 44 percent viewing her favorably and 48 percent viewing her unfavorably. Her standing among all registered voters has fluctuated only slightly since the last time the Polling Institute polled in the presidential race in April.
Trump, however, is far less popular in Massachusetts. Only 25 percent of likely voters view him favorably, and 70 percent view him unfavorably. Among all registered voters Trump’s favorability is similar, with 24 percent viewing him favorably and 71 percent viewing him unfavorably. Trump’s numbers have improved slightly since the April survey, when only 18 percent of registered voters viewed him favorably, while 75 percent viewed him unfavorably.
Clinton’s lead over Trump in Massachusetts is due in part to a consolidated base, with 88 perce